Btukfyl

This is not a question about the ideological implications of supporting or not supporting Trump. It is merely a question about the rational behavior (or lack thereof) of a political party when faced with certain facts.

And the facts are these. Donald Trump is monumentally unpopular. His disapproval rating has remained above 50 % (to be exact: an average of 52.1 % across multiple polls) for almost the entirety of his tenure - mind you that other presidents have had worse ratings by the end of their tenures, but nobody has had such bad ratings this early and this consistently as Donald Trump. This suggests that a majority of the population are fundamentally opposed to Trump, to the point where it is hard to see what could possibly change their stance when 2020 arrives.

Further, it may well be argued that a major reason for Trump's 2016 victory was his opposition: Hillary Clinton. An often unliked and untrusted career politician with a plethora of personal scandals, who caused a historical divide even amongst the left-leaning populace, to the point where statistics later revealed that 1 out of 10 Bernie Sanders supporters ... actually voted for Trump (no, seriously).

But will such a scenario repeat itself for 2020? Probably not, given the immense popularity of the most likely Democratic candidates, be that Elizabeth Warren, Beto O'Rourke, or Joe Biden.

With all that in mind, why does the Republican party not take steps to generate a movement against Trump, so that they can present a more viable candidate of their own for 2020? Is that not the rational thing to do? Trump is almost guaranteed to lose given the current state of affairs which, as argued above, differ significantly from 2016. Supporting him means giving up the most powerful political office in the world to your political opposition: is it not worth it to swallow your pride to avoid that outcome?

So why don't they? Is there political pressure not to from Trump himself? Is there a general lack of viable candidates in the first place? What rationale underlies their actions? Because as of right now, it seems the Republican party is by own volition taking the path towards defeat in 2020.

It may seem like a tautology, but Trump is popular where he is popular. Such is the case with divisive figures. In order to remain in office, politicians in those areas where Trump is popular feel the need to heed the will of their own personal constiuency and embrace Trump.

To be fair, an opinion I share is that some of the popularity that Trump receives in no small part comes from how unpopular he is where he is in fact unpopular. That is to say that those who are ardent Trump supporters like him more because of who he upsets and how he goes about it. People running for office in these areas are more than likely going to embrace and hope to emulate the Trump presidential style because it makes them more popular where it actually matters for them. Someone running for congress from Oklahoma probably couldn't care less what Trump's poll numbers in California are. If he is popular in their district then they will continue to support him.

Further, according to the most recent Gallup Poll Trump maintains 89% job approval within the Republican party. By contrast, Barack Obama's job approval for Democrats in his last week in office was 95% which isn't too far above where Trump is. The two have drastically different approval ratings from Independents, with Trump having 39% most recently and Obama holding 61% in his last week.¹

It is highly possible that the so-called "Never Trumpers" in the Republican party are in a tight spot, since they seem to be completely out of step with the rest of the Republican electorate. Many have already fled the Republican party which in cases of states with closed primaries means they have already abdicated any responsibility of helping the party choose the next nominee. Trump's style of always counter-attacking against perceived slights helps to keep all except the most outspoken against him in the party silent out of fear of retribution. This doesn't mean that those who approve of the job Trump is doing wouldn't support another Republican nominee more, but the current signs point to the Republican electorate being solidly behind Trump.

But will such a scenario repeat itself for 2020? Probably not, given the immense popularity of the most likely Democratic candidates, be that Elizabeth Warren, Beto O'Rourke, or Joe Biden.

I think you could be overestimating those politicians' overall popularity. Donald Trump wasn't supposed to be elected the first time around. I think you make a good point in that Clinton's unpopularity probably did help get him elected, but now that he's in office he is delivering on things that Republican voters want, so why would they switch?

_{1- For completeness, Trump has 6% job approval from Democrats and Obama had 14% from Republicans.}

Because polling data and Trump's approval rating do not tell the whole story.

As right-wing political commentator Ben Shapiro is fond of saying, two things can be true at once: It's entirely possible to both despise President Trump's character, bombastic personality, and divisive rhetoric AND simultaneously appreciate what he has done and is trying to accomplish policy-wise.

Consider the following:

• Trump's signature campaign promise was to get tough on illegal immigration, and he has done exactly that. Illegal immigration has always been a major concern for the right. Even though his "zero tolerance" policy is heavy-handed (or an outright human rights violation if you're on the left), it has sent a clear, unambiguous message to Central- and South American countries that the US/Mexico border is no longer an open thoroughfare for entering the United States illegally.


• The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act dramatically reduced corporate income taxes, which was previously the highest tax rate in the industrialized world. Regardless of whether you think this is good or bad for the economy, it has been a Republican policy wish for literally decades, and it finally got done under the Trump administration.


• The terrorist group ISIS, which was a major Middle East security concern that plagued the Obama administration, has nearly vanished from world headlines. The U.S. had a large role to play in that victory.


• US/Israeli relations are the best they've been in decades, and the Trump administration has been extremely friendly towards the Jewish state. Moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem is widely seen as huge positive step among conservatives and Israel's supporters -- especially among Christian conservatives. Other countries have since followed America's lead.


• Trump held a peace summit in Singapore with North- and South Korean leaders to discus nuclear disarmament of the Korean peninsula. It was the first time in history that North Korean and U.S. leaders have met face-to-face for talks. And while it remains to be seen what will come of them (North Korea has reneged on its promises in the past), it is nonetheless historic. North Korea has already destroyed some military outposts along the border, and has begun removing land mines from the DMZ.


• Trump has appointed and continues to nominate conservative judges to federal courts and to the U.S. Supreme Court. This is another campaign promise he has fulfilled. Conservatives who oppose Trump still enjoy the fact that the conservative tilt to the federal judiciary will outlast his legacy as president.


• Trump is constantly fighting back in the culture war. Despite his over-the-top rhetoric and criticism of "fake news", conservatives have been broadly troubled by left-wing identity politics and what they perceive to be pervasive liberal media bias for quite some time. This is the one place where Trump's rhetoric is a win for him politically among conservatives. Even many people on the right who don't support Trump's presidency tend to agree with him on this, even if they take everything he says with a grain of salt. Some conservatives argue that this reason alone is what got him elected in the first place.

Please note that this is not an overt argument in support of Trump. I am merely laying out the case for why conservatives specifically have not disowned him outright. If you could separate Trump's character and the garbage he craps out on Twitter from the way he has actually governed as President, his policy agenda and accomplishments to date read almost like a conservative dream come true.

Also note that there are a lot of policy disagreements among conservatives as well that work to temper their support; his belief in tariffs and his cozy disposition with world dictators are notable examples.

The bottom line is that, unlike with previous presidents, you can't conflate Trump's popularity and his performance as a governor. As it stands now (December, 2018), it does not appear likely that he will be reelected. But it all depends what happens between now and then, and on who the Democrats pony up for the 2020 race.

There's an old English proverb that goes, "In for a penny, in for a pound." It is an example of the sunk cost fallacy, basically saying that once we put some effort/money/worthwhile thing into a cause that we can't easily reverse, our tendency is to follow through to the end, for fear of 'wasting' that initial effort/money/worthwhile thing.

The Republicans spent boatloads of political capital and trashed decades of a good reputation for Trump when they saw he could get the things that they wanted from government, and he's been fairly successful at doing so. Unfortunately, Trump, like any good mob boss, requires loyalty and a willingness to get dirty on his behalf, and treats anyone who voices disagreement as an enemy. And as the midterms show, Republican enemies of Trump don't get re-elected. And as for getting dirty on his behalf? There seem to be plenty willing to do so.

So where does that leave us at? The Republicans aren't going to give up on Trump en masse, because that would mean that several of them will likely be charged as accessories to one or more crimes. And they're the only ones with the power to prevent that ending.

There's no hard proof for "why", but the following are all reasons stated at one time or another. They aren't mutually exclusive.

1. High level Republicans don't want to antagonize Trump due to negative consequences from him.




2. High level Republicans don't want to antagonize Trump due to negative consequences from their electorate who are Trump supporters.




3. High level Republicans don't want to antagonize Trump due to negative consequences to the party from infighting. Both as far as morale, and opportunity cost (an hour/a dollar spent infighting is an hour/a dollar not spent opposing the other party).




4. Inevitability. Trump demonstrated that he can beat any even most formidable R opponents in primaries in 2016. It may very well be that people just take it for granted he's inevitably going to win 2020 primaries, so why spit upwind?



5. 
   

   Trump actually delivered on many things (see Wes Sayeed's excellent answer for a list). Arguably, more and more important things than R presidents before him. Bush may not have had any scandals and got re-elected, but what exactly did the conservatives get out of it as far as political achievements? (good question to ask on this site, but my impression is "not much in second term").

   
   
   

   To paraphrase, if:

   
   
   

   P(T,E) = "probability of Trump winning general election"

   
   
   

   P(T,A) = "probability of Trump delivering things Rs want"

   
   
   

   P(R,E) = "probability of Trump replacement winning general election"

   
   
   

   P(R,A) = "probability of replacement delivering R agenda"

   
   
   

   the calculation is as follows: is P(T,E) * P(T,A) < P(R,E) * P(R,A) ?

   
   
   

   While you can make legitimate arguments that P(T,E) is less than P(R,E) (someone else is less likely to lose a general election), you can ALSO make a legitimate argument that P(T,A) is far bigger than P(R,A) - some RINO Republican like Romney governing like Democrat Lite wouldn't really be much of a win for Republicans as far as agenda.

   
   


6. 
   

   Somewhat linked with 4, there are downsides to a non-Trump Republican winning 2020 General elections.

   
   
   

   Due to reversion to the mean, that would almost guaranteed assure 2024 Democrat win (and 2022 Democrat midterm win). Conversely, Democrat winning in 2020 may cause that to revert ala 2014.

   
   
   

   Having an effective (as far as delivering agenda) R President is obviously worth such downsides.

   
   
   

   Having an ineffective R president may not be.

   
   



7. Trump demonstrated in practice that he can win. So, while you can make reasonable argument that he'd be more likely to lose in 2020 than 2016, you can also make reasonable arguments that he will manage to win 2020 more than a competing R candidate despite his weaknesses.